Tougher Times Ahead

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Totally agree with Dags (hopefully he doesn't see this)

Not pointing the finger at anyone in this thread in particular, but there is a difference between being cautious and running around screaming "we're all gonna die". The hysteria is just fueling the fire.

[turbo.vixen]

I.......need........work.......

[R-SPEC]

Spot on, that's the effect the media has on the sheep of the world.

Are you a sheep?

[Mondie]

  Buf-Phoon said:

Mondie

you should be pretty well insulated as you have been pretty shrewd along the way... but you have made the right calls.

Regardless about what it is you know, one thing ATM comes to the fore, "competitive advantage" more important than ever before.

Six months ago l thought l was fairly well insulated but the Oil price has gone through the floor and the easy money has left the stockmarket. Thankfully l work in the Energy sector which will always have underlying demand so while things might die in the arse they will not come to a stop like business operating in the discretionary end of the spectrum

  Dagabond said:

Simon...

...you know its sites like that after having a quick peruse....and these threads.... that make me feel like we are talking ourselves (every single one of us on the planet that will be affected by it) INTO this recession, rather than getting on with it, I dont just mean us here I mean EVERYONE.... It's like an under lying current drawing us deeper and deeper down the gurgler....

Surely in this day and age we have the ability to do something about it...

Hi Dags,

l am a glass half full kind of guy but this has me spooked, it goes way beyond talking ourselves into it, the ramifications are much bigger than that. Spend some time on that forum and take in some of the hard data and work out who the people are with their finger on the pulse, its not a wankfest, there is some very insightful people there. Anyhow, nobody needs to convince anyone else of their thoughs, do whats right for you. We recenly moved to Adelaide and were all set to build our "dream house" but the speed at which the economy as dropped here is amazing, we have decided to sit on our hands for the time being. Was in Perth last week, that place is so so screwed. Its happening.

  R-SPEC said:

Spot on, that's the effect the media has on the sheep of the world.

Are you a sheep?

The effect the media is having up until the last 2 weeks at least, is to tell us things are fine and to encourage the sheep to wade into the real estate market because "now is a great time to buy" Low interest rates blah blah ..........Non stop advertorials pumping up the interests of their sponsors. Forget the media.

Cheers,

mondie

Edited 25/01/09 01:12 AM by Mondie

[Ralph Wiggum]

Mondie,

What exaclty are your concerns with building? Are you concerned the house wont be worth the cost to build once it finished or that the banks will fall over and take you with them?

I am concerned, i owe 70% of the bank value of my 1 year old house, My mortgage is less than half of my monthy income,we also have my wifes income (govt employee so hope her job is safe) that's all well and good but if i become unemployed obviously im screwed. What exactly is the appropriate course of action?

Im in perth so obviously ver concerned about what's happening here. I have had to sack 3 people in the last few days for misconduct and it certainly go me thinking that i wouldn't want to be on the job hunt.

[Mondie]

  hiddeous said:

Mondie,

What exaclty are your concerns with building? Are you concerned the house wont be worth the cost to build once it finished or that the banks will fall over and take you with them?

Yeah its mainly building something which in today's market we could burn $200k easily on by the time its built, and that's in today's market, by the time it was done by years end it will most likely be even worse. When we bought the land it was a dream block for us and we marched full steam ahead into building, this was June 08. By October l started to feel uneasy about it all. My wife had been watching established homes and we noticed they stopped selling and the downward price pressure. Established homes are now much better value even taking into account the outrageous stamp duty payable.

There is a house we looked at yesterday that we would dearly love to buy but we need to sell the land first. It has been reduced 400k from what it listed at only months ago. The builder has over capitalised and completely missed the market trend. We couldn't build anything close to it for the money, so building is out of the question until the builders become more realistic, which they will as the order books thin.

House prices in this country are completely out of control and the Ponzi scheme as its dubbed by some, is starting to unravel.

GL in Perth mate, l think that place is going to face some real hard times and social problems in the coming years.

Cheers,

mondie

Edited 25/01/09 01:42 AM by Mondie

[hypnodoc]

  Quote

Hi Doc,

Its been a long while, hows it going these days mate, keeping FPV honest

l was in the UK on holidays in December and that country is so screwed, at least 1/3rd of pubs were boarded up, shops closed everywhere and those not yet closed running 70% or more off sales. We are headed off a cliff in this country rapidiy and l find it hard to fathom how we are going to come out the other side. The debt fueled boom is unwinding at an accelerating pace.

Hey Mondie. Happy New Year.

Mate I have just arrived back in the place tonight after 4 internet free days in Switzerland and Germany. I have to say I'm looking forward to getting home on Saturday. I've been living at the Marriot in Maida Vale and got to know the manager pretty well and he told me they are down to 20% occupancy during weekdays and 50-60% on weekends. It was 80 to 100% weekly until 6 months ago. Business doors are shutting everywhere and prices are falling through the floor. It amazes me that people can still think this is media inspired. Fact is that 99% of the banks have got no money. We are really going to feel it when Bank of America and CitiBank derivitaves fall due at the end of feb. Bank of America have somewhere between 76 and 89 trillion dollars worth alone, its just a matter of time.

You can be as positive as you like but reality is reality. If you said Lehman was going to tip over 6 months ago you would have been lughed out of the room. All the positive thinking in the world won't fix this one. Governments need to take back control of the money supply and all that starting a toxic bank like they are talking about doing is bankrupt the goverments as they bail the grubby bankers out. I wonder if they would give me a few million if my business went down the gurgler from lies and bad management. I guess not.

[RapidF6]

  Mondie said:

GL in Perth mate, l think that place is going to face some real hard times and social problems in the coming years.

Hey, Mondie! Another Perth resident here. Just wondering, can you tell us what you think will happen to/in Perth in a bit more detail? I'm guessing with the mining boom being over, that you mean there will be a pretty high unemployment rate in Perth... Do you think the oil companies here will weather the recession?

Edit: Is anyone else having difficulties with the link that Mondie posted?

Edited 27/01/09 12:42 AM by RapidF6

[ZAP]

The mining bubble has burst big time in some areas. I was reading THIS and it is a clear indication of the bubble bursting for Cobar.

This town will reflect many places that rely on mining over the next 6 months.

I think that retail, mining, hospitality and service businesses will be the hardest hit.

We will see 10+% unemployment by this time next year and a massive realisation of the true effect this is having on the average person.

Bill Gates today said he expects it to take 10 years for the USA to recover from this.

[Ralph Wiggum]

what im unsure about Zap and can;t seem to find any decent info to back it up either way is how big the regression in the miner sector is going to be.

I have been in the mining game since 1997 and in 2000 it took me four months to find a job. The industry was very slow at the time. Are we going back to that or are we going beyond that? Every body is talking %'s of reduction in production and output but nobody seems to be comparing to pre boom level only levels from last year or the year before.

I personally stepped out of mining as the boom took off as i wasn't happy working with people with little or no experience. Since returning to mining (yes i must be stupid, i went back to mining AFTER the bubble had burst) i have noticed that now the boom is over the experienced people are slowly coming back and there is alot of jobs (i counted 120 adds on various job search site on the weekend, most where for multiple positions) avaliable for the right people now, not just the first person that fronts up.

What this all means i don't know, what i dont know is i have enough $'s saved up to pay my mortgage for quite awhile so all i can do i sit back and enjoy the ride.