good news; it did rain plenty and would have leaked if there was one... crawled up into the ceiling around where there are problematic areas on the tiling and there's no leak yay... will clean up those "problem" areas at a later stage.
and the aforementioned handiwork with the ratchet strap "fix". That "blue" rope tie thingo you can see I attempted to re-tie it but it didn't do the job well enough, so the ratchet strap gets involved... that drip-tray thingo that the white piping is connected to is meant to catch and then drain the drips/condensation from the air-conl out to the guttering, but it had bent downwards (see the "v-shaped bit in the metal" and it had dropped down and was the new "low point" for the drips and it also allowed water to "drip" slowly through and that "wet" the insulation and eventually got wet enough that the water made it through to the plasterboard of the ceiling and created wetting/cracking problems... annoying.
DrippingCeilingAirConTray.mp4
That video is from earlier on a hot humid night where it wasn't raining so all of that "water" is from the A/C itself...
And the fix:
Now I have to repair the damaged ceiling plaster... fun. Might pay for a tradie to do that